SCO solvency

Message ID: 270409
Posted By: al_petrofsky
Posted On: 2005-06-01 23:54:00
Subject: SCO solvency

Below is an updated historical chart of
CALD/SCOX's cash and securities (more
precisely: unrestricted cash,
cash-equivalents, and available-for-sale
securities).

The Q2 number, $14.2M, is significantly
better than my WAG, $12M. It still
crossed the 2003 Q3 $14.7M number,
though, which is something of a
milestone: the BayStar cash is finally
all gone, LIFO-wise.

This is SCO's second straight quarter of
not-so-bad results, and this time that's
also reflected in the cash and
securities balance (which is one of the
harder numbers to fake). I thought the
first quarter was likely a fluke, but
now I'm guessing that SCO really does
have things somewhat under control for
the near-term. I had guessed SCO would
need more cash midway through next year,
but now I think that even if the UNIX
revenue resumes its decline, SCO should
be able to last at least six more
quarters and into FY 2007. I don't
expect a big court award to Red Hat or
IBM before FY 2007 either, so I think
SCO's death scene has a long way to go.

Scale: _ = $2,000,000

2000Q2:______________________________________________$92.2M
2000Q3:___________________________________________$85.2M
2000YE:_____________________________________________$90.7M

2001Q1:_______________________________________$78.7M
2001Q2:__________________________________$67.3M
2001Q3:___________________$37.3M
2001YE:______________$28.4M

2002Q1:_____________$26.1M
2002Q2:___________$21.8M
2002Q3:_____$9.6M
2002YE:___$6.6M

2003Q1:__$4.9M
2003Q2:_____$10.0M
2003Q3:_______$14.7M
2003YE:__________________________________$68.5M

2004Q1:________________________________$64.7M
2004Q2:______________________________$61.3M
2004Q3:______________________$43.0M
2004YE:_______________$31.4M

2005Q1:________$15.4M
2005Q2:_______$14.2M

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